A Road to War Paved with Folly

Let us go back to the Iran nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), finalized in July 2015 by Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — the United States, Great Britain, France, China, and Russia — plus Germany and the European Union.

By most accounts, the agreement was working before the first Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from it in May 2018 and reimposed sanctions. Critics of the JCPOA argued that its sunset clauses merely delayed Iran's nuclear progress rather than stopping it outright. In their view, Iran only had to wait out the clock before it could legally expand key parts of its program. Critics also raised other serious concerns: Iran's support for terrorism, its funding and arming of proxies, and its ballistic missile program, none of which were addressed by the agreement and which Iran refused to negotiate over.

The Trump administration could have continued enforcing the agreement while applying pressure elsewhere — on missiles, proxy warfare, and terrorism — or it might have tried to strengthen the deal by extending the sunset clauses. Instead, it tore the agreement up and reimposed sanctions, sharply escalating tensions without a credible backup plan. By withdrawing unilaterally, Washington also freed Iran from the agreement's restrictions. Iran soon began enriching uranium beyond the JCPOA's limits and reduced its cooperation with international inspectors.

The agreement had been the product of years of difficult diplomacy. The United States discarded it with the stroke of a pen and no clear strategy for what would follow.

Iran, of course, also had a choice. It could have continued to abide by the agreement despite the American withdrawal, or at least sought to preserve the diplomatic high ground. Instead, it expanded its nuclear activity and reduced cooperation with inspectors while continuing its broader belligerence against Israel, its neighbors, and the West. Its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, continued their attacks on Israel, while Hezbollah and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fought ruthlessly in Syria on behalf of Bashar al-Assad's murderous regime.

Then Hamas, in an act of sheer barbarism and strategic stupidity, launched its horrific attack on Israel — murdering, raping, and kidnapping civilians and igniting the Gaza War. Hezbollah and the Houthis soon joined the conflict against Israel. Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and Syria also killed IRGC officers operating alongside them. Then, in a grave escalation, Iran struck Israel directly, launching hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles.

That decision was disastrous.

Israel retaliated and heavily degraded Iran's air defenses, leaving the country — and its nuclear program — far more vulnerable to further attack.

The highly successful American raid on Maduro, together with Israel's relentless degradation of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian air defenses, appears to have paved the way for yet another round of catastrophic miscalculation. With Iran increasingly exposed, Israel and the United States saw an opportunity to destroy its nuclear program from the air. In the process, they also decapitated much of the Iranian regime, killing the Supreme Leader along with multiple ministers and IRGC commanders.

And here the folly continued. The United States seems to have expected that airstrikes alone might produce regime collapse, yet it does not appear to have had a serious plan for what came next beyond more air power. It also seems to have been caught off guard by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz — even though that move must have figured in virtually every serious war game involving Iran for decades.

It is too soon to call the war a disaster for the United States. Iran's military capacity is being degraded further with each passing day. But America's military has arguably been overstretched for years, and its Navy has been depleted — another layer of strategic carelessness. A war of attrition favors Iran far more than many Americans realize, while also weakening America's ability to respond to crises elsewhere.

The road to the Iran War was paved with folly on all sides.

Mark James is the Kirkus-starred author of Iran War geopolitical thrillers Friendship Games and The Compass Room. He has taught political and economic geography for over twenty years.