How We Got Here: Iran's Catastrophic Decisions

So now that the war has started, how will it end? What happens now?

That's the thing about wars. They are easy enough to start, but how they unfold once they begin, and how they end, are always unpredictable. It really is best to avoid them. You know, if there was a message in Friendship Games, it was that.

There is one thing I've learned as a student of geopolitics: all wars end badly. Case in point: The First Gulf War. That war is widely regarded as a 'splendid little war' if there ever was one. After 38 days and nights of practically nonstop bombing of entrenched Iraqi troops in Kuwait, the ground campaign that followed ended the war in just 100 hours.

And then things got weird.

First, Shia Muslims in the south of the country, primarily in Basra, revolted against the government of Saddam Hussein. The mission of American soldiers was to liberate Kuwait. Mission accomplished. Now they stood by helplessly as Saddam Hussein strafed the population with helicopter gunships within earshot of the Americans, and sent in tanks. It was a massacre.

Another uprising emerged among Iraqi Kurds in the north of the country. This time, the US imposed a 'no-fly zone' and ordered Iraq to not send in troops or tanks against the Kurds. Iraqi Kurdistan enjoyed more than a decade of de facto independence due to American protections.

Protection from Iraq, that is. Separatist Kurds in neighboring Turkey sought refuge in Iraqi Kurdistan and set up camps from which to strike in Turkey. That, in turn, invited persistent Turkish airstrikes on Kurds in Iraq and ground incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan.

Remember, Turkey is a NATO ally of America. Like I said, things got messy.

The United States and Israel really did try to avoid war with Iran, and vice versa, for the past 45 years. But Iran made a series of catastrophic decisions over the last several years. First, Iran arms, funds, trains, and backs its proxy Hamas in Gaza. It is possible that Iran had knowledge of the October 7, 2023 attacks beforehand, and maybe even played a role in its planning, but it is just as likely that Hamas carried out its attack independently. One can't always control its proxies. That's another message of Friendship Games.

Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis of Yemen – both proxies of Iran right alongside Hamas – joined with Hamas in its war against Israel. Israel badly degraded all three, killing Iranian IRGC leaders in their midst. The IRGC and Hezbollah were also very active in Syria's civil war and, from there, coordinated the proxies' attacks on Israel. Israel struck Damascus, killing Hezbollah and IRGC leaders there.

And here was Iran's second catastrophic decision. Iran launched a significant barrage of ballistic missiles and drones directly at Israel on April 13-14, 2024, ditching its 45-year history of avoiding direct conflict with Israel and bringing the war into the open.

Israel's strikes on Iran heavily degraded Iran's air defenses. America took advantage and joined the conflict on June 21, 2025 by striking Iran's principal nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Washington and Tehran returned to the negotiation table about Iran's nuclear program, but they made no progress. On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a new air campaign against Iran.

As I wrote in my previous post, Iran is not rolling over despite the killing of its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and much of the country's top leadership. Iran has responded by launching missile and drone strikes across the region – at Israel, at American bases, and at US-aligned Gulf states including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

Which brings us to Iran's third catastrophic decision. By lashing out across the region, Iran is once again bullying its smaller neighbors in the Gulf. It warns that it will strike civilian infrastructure and threatens terrorism across the region and the West. This is a surefire way to unite its neighbors and rally them against Iran.

Iran is also attacking ships in the Persian Gulf and has closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas supply passes daily, threatening energy markets and the global economy.

All this for the sake of its imperial ambitions and spreading its religious authoritarian ideology.

Next: The American side.

Mark James is the Kirkus-starred author of Iran War geopolitical thrillers Friendship Games and The Compass Room. He has taught political and economic geography for over twenty years.