Settle the Ukraine War, Bring Russia into the Fold?

In just three months, the Russo-Ukrainian War will enter its fourth year. Apart from an incursion into Russia by Ukrainian troops earlier this month – and they are still there – there has been little progress by either Russia or Ukraine for more than a year. Russia still slowly chips away, but we are talking about taking land measured in hundreds of feet. And now Ukraine occupies a few square miles of territory in Russia. But don't be fooled; the main event remains the front lines in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine.

The West rightfully continues to supply expensive and sophisticated weapons and weapons systems to Ukraine, including F-16s and long-range HIMARS rockets, to stop Russia's advances. But Ukraine clamors for more offensive weapons, like long-range missiles, and bristles at the Western-imposed restrictions on the use of the weapons supplied. The West doesn't want to provoke Russia further by allowing long-range military strikes on Moscow and other targets deep inside Russia.

What is the endgame for Russia? At first, in February and March 2022, it appeared to be the complete takeover of Ukraine. That mission was a failure. Russia today would have us believe that the failed incursions into Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, in early 2022 were actually a diversion while it seized territory from Crimea to the Dnipro River and created a land bridge between Crimea and the pro-Russian secessionist Donbas Oblast of Ukraine.

No one really buys it.

It appears, however, that Russia would settle for the annexation of the land it has captured from Ukraine – and a promise from Ukraine and the West that Ukraine cannot join NATO. After everything, perhaps they could compromise on the latter. But the West and certainly Ukraine would not likely settle for less than NATO membership for what remains of Ukraine.

What is the endgame for Ukraine? Total defeat of Vladimir Putin and Russia, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. That's not going to happen. Moreover, the West probably wouldn't want that to happen.

Why? A defeat of Russia could be cataclysmic. All of Eurasia, from Moscow in Europe to Vladivostok on the Pacific, would be roiling in war, terrorism, sectarianism, and religious extremism. Think Islamist terrorism is bad now? Great and emerging powers would want to pacify the massively large region and extend their spheres of influence – Europe, China, Turkey, Iran, and what is left of Russia. There would be a stampede for Russian and Central Asian resources.

The West shuddered at the thought of Soviet nuclear weapons going missing or unsecured as the USSR broke apart after 1991. If Russia were to be defeated and/or collapse, it would surely break apart, and those fears of the 1990s would reemerge – and by orders of magnitude.

Heck, if Ukraine somehow made a major breakthrough and marched on Moscow, don't be surprised if Russia turns to tactical nuclear weapons – and even uses them on its own soil against advancing foreign armies.

This is serious stuff, and that's why this war needs to be settled soon.

Ukraine's incursion into Russia is largely seen as a morale-boosting operation for Ukrainians and an embarrassment for Russia. It is yet more evidence of the structural weaknesses of Russia's military. It is not like the highly professional, mobile, and flexible militaries of the United States and the West. It is composed primarily of poorly trained conscripts, and a top-down hierarchical structure – its lower-ranked officers and non-commissioned officers do not have the freedom to improvise or act without orders from above – makes it a slow, lumbering military unable to adjust to rapidly changing circumstances. But its weaponry is still among the world's best, and its military is modernizing, albeit more slowly than thought.

Most likely, if the war continues, it will drag on as is with little to no territorial gains for either side. Or something catastrophic happens: a break in the Ukrainian lines and Russia gains more territory, or, in reverse, the Russians break and Ukraine sweeps into the Donbas and possibly Crimea as well. But it is doubtful that Ukraine would stop at Donbas and/or Crimea. Why would they? And the chaos of Russia's collapse outlined above ensues.

No, this war needs to be settled, and sooner rather than later.

Okay, so the war is settled with Russia annexing the Donbas region of Ukraine like it had already done with Crimea. Now what?

Will Russia then turn to the NATO members Baltic States and stake a claim on Russian-majority areas there like they did in Ukraine? Will they reassert their attention and influence over the Caucasus region, or come to the aid of Armenia and challenge expansionist Azerbaijan? Bully Georgia into rejoining the Russian fold? Probably not the Baltics scenario, but most certainly the rest.

And the West would probably continue to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine with economic sanctions and embargoes until Western-style democracy and the rule of law take hold in Russia. Which means sanctions, embargoes, and military standoffs indefinitely. A new (hot) Cold War.

Russia will be forced into strengthening economic and military ties with China, North Korea, and Iran. Not a good prospect for either side.

Incorporating Russia into the West – say membership in NATO or the European Union, or even as a NATO and/or EU 'partner' in lieu of official membership – would place much of the massive region of Central Asia within the economic and political purview of the West. The West would have to expend a lot of capital in all its forms on policing and pacifying such an expansive area one thousand to three thousand miles from its economic and political core. Russia surely would demand it; it would relieve them of a great burden. But the West (sans USA) is notoriously insular, and the expense alone would be a non-starter.

So, could the West bring a post-Ukraine War Russia into the Western fold? No. Everyone recognized in the 1990s that it wasn't feasible then, and it isn't feasible now. Russia and the Russian World are its own animal entirely.

But it doesn't mean that the USA and the West can't establish more or less good economic and trade relations with Russia, or at least relations that aren't always at the level of brinkmanship. That requires recognition of the real fears that Russians harbor and that are based in history and geography. Northern Eurasia – north of the Himalayas and the Alps – is relatively flat, and there are few barriers to movement from the Pacific to the Atlantic. Moscow has faced besiegement several times in its history and was even conquered and ruled from Mongolia by the Golden Horde for 240 years. Its latest besiegement – by the Nazis in World War 2 – was just over 80 years ago. Russia (rightfully) takes a long view of history given its experiences.

The West, Ukraine, and Russia should settle this war now then figure out a way to coexist and, indeed, establish more or less cordial relations, at least over time. It means the West recognizing the cold reality of – and respecting – Russia's fears. Which, in turn, means possibly leaving Ukraine out of NATO and the European Union as a buffer state between Russia and the West.   

Lastly, there may be good cause for the West and Russia to move closer together. Islamist terrorist attacks have killed hundreds in both the West and in Russia in recent years – thousands if we include 9/11 in New York City and the October 7 attacks in Israel. Even more recent attacks include the Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow, attacks on churches in Dagestan, knife attacks in Germany and the UK, and attacks on synagogues in France. This is at least one major issue that the two sides could work together on mitigating while establishing a precedent for further future cooperation.