The Bomb Trap (... and Thinking Out Loud)

My blog posts here and on The Compass Room with Mark James serve three general purposes: 1) to engage with readers; 2) to articulate what I am thinking, which in turn helps clarify what I am thinking; and 3) to use writing itself — putting thoughts to paper, or to your screen — as my own attempt at understanding. Maybe they help your understanding as well.

My posts are not opinion pieces so much as me thinking out loud. That can leave me exposed to contradictions, or to seeming to flip-flop from one opinion to another. I do not think I have done that yet, but nor do I especially care. Like I said, I am just trying to understand — and you get a sneak peek into my thought process.

The Bomb Trap

Israel's degradation of Iran's air defenses in October 2024 left Iran and its nuclear program exposed to air strikes. That exposure surely would not last forever, but a window of opportunity existed while those defenses were inoperable. Israel and the United States seized that opportunity, striking while Iran continued to obfuscate during negotiations over its nuclear program.

Iran's air defenses have been degraded further since, and the US and Israel continue to hit targets related to Iran's nuclear program. They are also targeting Iran's missile and drone programs.

The opening attacks in February crippled Iran's government. But there has been no regime change, and it seems unlikely anytime soon. That government, now led largely by the extremist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), surely has every incentive to piece together whatever material it can muster and build whatever nuclear bomb it can manage.

That is the bomb trap. If the regime survives, then the preemptive attacks on its nuclear program may only have driven it toward the very thing the attacks were meant to prevent: an atomic bomb in the hands of fanatics.

This is obviously, seriously dangerous. The nuclear program is widely dispersed in Iran, and presumably not every site is known.

Can the Trump Administration really sue for peace now without regime change? And if not, this war could very well carry on for a very long time — and include American soldiers fighting on the ground. That is not a small undertaking. It could require a very significant force, far more than what the US mustered in the First Gulf War.

Surely this was all gamed out a priori. Right?

Bueller? Bueller?

Mark James is the Kirkus-starred author of Iran War geopolitical thrillers Friendship Games and The Compass Room. He has taught political and economic geography for over twenty years.