The Iran War

If you are of a certain age – say, 55 to 65 – then the war you knew was coming your whole life is here.

It wasn't entirely inevitable. If you recall, after 9/11 the Bush 43 administration was keen on going to war with Iran. Like Iraq, they were suspected of secretly trying to develop the technology for building nuclear weapons. Unlike Iraq, the evidence of a secret Iranian nuclear program was compelling. Iraq, however, was the easier target. It is roughly one third the size of Iran, and its population is roughly half that of Iran's. More importantly, Iraq's military had been decimated during the First Gulf War and was degraded further in a decade of confrontation with the United States afterward. There was talk of attacking Iran after wrapping up in Iraq. Instead, the US got bogged down in a decade-long quagmire in Iraq.

Another big reason that the US did not go to war with Iran back in the 2000s and 2010s is demographics. Iran is a young country. 68% of Iranians are under the age of 45 and thus were born after the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Several generations now of Iranians have grown up under stifling and harsh Islamic law. 67% of the population of Iran in 2005 lived in cities; now it is up to 77%. Urbanization often creates pressures for political and cultural liberalization. Higher densities, greater anonymity, and consumer life can all weaken traditional social controls and promote demands for greater personal freedom.

And we do see that in Iran. Political reformists have polled well in Iran's cities from Tehran to Tabriz over the past few decades.

I think that most people would be surprised to learn that Iran has a semblance of democracy. It holds actual elections for president, parliament, and local offices. But these elected institutions operate within a theocratic system whose unelected Supreme Leader has ultimate authority over the state.

Nevertheless, there have been actual – if excruciatingly slow – low-level reforms in Iran through elections. Cooler heads in the Bush 43 and Obama administrations sought to tie up Iran's nuclear ambitions via sanctions and, ultimately, a nuclear agreement, to slow their progress in the hopes that the demographic tide would force political liberalization in Iran and induce a marginalization of its hardliners before they ever got 'the bomb'.

Unfortunately, that keeps not happening. Whenever political reform movements spill into the streets – and that is seemingly happening with a quickening pace in recent years – the hardliners crack down without restraint. This past month alone, the regime massacred thousands.

Meanwhile, Iran and the harsh religious authoritarian ideology of Islamism have wreaked havoc across the Middle East. More than a million people have died from Islamist terrorism, uprisings, and war. And Iran – the Islamic Republic – itself is expansionist. Through proxies in neighboring Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the West Bank, Gaza, and Yemen – and probably elsewhere – Iran is extending its reach and seeking to dominate the entire region.

Further, the destruction of Israel lies at the core of the Islamic Republic's ideology. The regime wrongly portrays Israel as a Western colonial beachhead in Islamic lands and seeks to eradicate it. This is a conspiratorial claim, and it also places Iran in fundamental opposition to the West.

Through the decades, Iran has been careful not to confront the United States directly. It recognizes the destructive power of America. It has also been careful not to confront Israel directly. Israel is a regional power that punches way above its size, and it has the backing of the United States.

The United States and Israel had likewise refrained from attacking Iran directly. The Islamic Republic is firmly entrenched, and Iran is no minor state. It is a large, sophisticated country – it is the successor to the ancient Persian Empire – with deep historical roots and a strong civilizational identity. Though oil remains a major contributor to its GDP, Iran's economy is far more diverse and complex than many appreciate. It manufactures cars, aircraft, and satellites, and it sustains its own military-industrial complex. It has long been understood that a war with Iran would be a serious war – one of the largest and most consequential conflicts the United States could face, far exceeding the scale of its post-9/11 campaigns.

So, what changed? Why are Israel, the United States, and the Islamic Republic of Iran now in the direct war all three had long sought to avoid?

October 7, 2023 happened.

Hamas, the de facto ruler of Gaza and a direct proxy of Iran, invaded Israel in a surprise attack. Moreover, Hamas terrorists targeted any Jew they came across, killing over 1,000 people, the vast majority civilians, including children and the elderly. They took 250 people hostage and dragged them back to Gaza as Israel fought back, even taking several bodies of Israeli dead.

This was the largest single attack on Jews since the Holocaust. Even the surprise Yom Kippur War in 1973 did not directly target civilians. It was an attack on Israeli military positions. October 7 was different. Hamas specifically targeted Israeli civilians and massacred them.

The following day, on October 8, Hezbollah in Lebanon launched an attack of its own against Israel in support of Hamas. Israel could not respond in a simple tit-for-tat, nor could it tolerate such obviously hostile and dangerous groups on its borders any longer.

The Houthis – another of Iran's proxies, this one in Yemen – joined the war against Israel as well, firing ballistic missiles and drones at Israel. They also struck international shipping in the Red Sea.

Israel struck back against all three. The war continues. On April 1, 2024, Israel struck Iran's consular building within its embassy compound in Damascus, killing senior IRGC commanders who were helping oversee Iran's regional proxy network. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles and drones directly at Israel, marking the first open clash between the two states.

Iran launched a second major missile barrage in October 2024, after Israel escalated its campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon and killed senior Hezbollah and IRGC figures. Israel responded on October 26, 2024 with major strikes of its own that heavily degraded Iran's air defenses and hit missile-related targets.

These strikes left Iran's airspace largely undefended for the first time in decades. Israel saw an opportunity to finally strike against Iran's nuclear ambitions. On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a surprise air campaign against Iran, striking nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and senior military leaders. On June 21, the United States entered the war by striking Iran's principal nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Tensions remained high afterward, even as Washington and Tehran continued nuclear negotiations. Then, on February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a new surprise air campaign against Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the opening phase of the attacks, and the war entered an even more dangerous stage.

From October 7, 2023 onward, Iran has been the belligerent power. It is unclear why Iran went down the path of October 7 and all that came after. Clearly, October 7 was an attack too far.

The question now is: what is the end goal?

For Iran, the immediate goal is survival. Every day the regime remains in power is, for now, a victory of sorts. Its long-term goals remain what they have long been: the destruction of Israel, the weakening of American power in the region, and the spread of its religious authoritarian ideology.

For Israel and the United States, the immediate goal is narrower but still immense: the destruction of Iran's nuclear program and the degradation – if not destruction – of its offensive military capabilities. Regime change, too, if they can get it. But that is a much harder objective, and one that would likely require far more than air power from a distance. Iran is not rolling over. Despite the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei and much of the top leadership around him, the regime fights on under his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, and continues to fire missiles and drones across the region.

Now that the war has started, how does it end? That question requires a whole other post.

Mark James is the Kirkus-starred author of Iran War geopolitical thrillers Friendship Games and The Compass Room. He has taught political and economic geography for over twenty years.