Why Greenland?

Following the Maduro Raid, America's President Donald Trump has emphatically and repeatedly reasserted his desire to annex Greenland. He refuses any promise not to use military force and, in fact, ordered the US military to draw up plans for an armed invasion and takeover of Greenland.

The apparent reason is that Greenland's geographical location is highly strategic. It also contains various valuable and in-demand rare earth minerals and energy reserves, but it is its strategic geographic situation that I will address.

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Greenland's strategic location has become in vogue for several reasons. First, the world order is in flux. Multiple hegemons defined the world order prior to World War II. After WWII, the United States and the Soviet Union emerged as diametrically opposed superpowers, setting up a bipolar world. After the collapse and breakup of the USSR in 1991, America stood alone as the world's only superpower and leader of a unipolar world.

That unipolar world is no more. It has given way to a multipolar world again with the economic and military rise of China and a resurgent Russia while America was bogged down fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and with armed engagements from Syria to Yemen. President Obama withdrew from Iraq in 2010-11 and announced a "pivot" to the Pacific to shore up waning American security there. He doubled down in Afghanistan, however, and that war continued until President Biden withdrew under fire in 2021.

In December 2025, President Trump announced a renewed focus on shoring up the Western Hemisphere, where North and South America are situated. On January 3, the US snatched the autocratic president of Venezuela in the now famous Maduro Raid. Cuba is on notice that it is likely next if doesn't end decades of autocratic rule and hostility to the US. I talk about the strategic significance of Cuba here.

Greenland becomes increasingly important as the US seeks absolute hegemony over the Western Hemisphere. Greenland is the world's largest island, but it is very remote and lies north of Canada. It is sparsely populated, with a population of roughly 56,000. Nuuk, its capital "city," is only 20,000 people. While it is part of the Canadian Shield, it is a territory of Denmark, and its cultural and political connections have been with Scandinavia for more than a millennium, including via various intermittent settlements.

Because of its remoteness, sparse population, and harsh conditions, Greenland was never really seen as geographically important until the Cold War. Greenland is the western edge of what is known as the GIUK Gap. GIUK stands for Greenland, Iceland, and the UK. The GIUK Gap consists of two passages – one between Greenland and Iceland, and the other between Iceland and the UK – that connect the Baltic and North Seas with the open Atlantic Ocean. It is through the GIUK Gap that the Soviet – and now Russian – fleet must pass to reach the Atlantic. Greenland and Iceland became very important bases for detecting and monitoring the movement of Soviet (now Russian) ships and submarines.

Greenland also became important because it lies between Russia and North America. It lies in the direct path of any ICBM launched from Russia – or, for that matter, from most of Eurasia – aimed at North America. Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) was and remains an all-important US base for detecting missiles and for monitoring Russian ships and submarines.

Lastly, Greenland's strategic importance is growing because of melting ice caps in the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic is largely impassable for most of the year, at least historically, because of ice. With sea temperatures rising, however, parts of the Artic are increasingly passable for shipping and for longer durations. This opens sea-based trade routes between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans – through the Northeast Passage, which skirts along the long Arctic Coast of Russia, and through the Northwest Passage, which skirts along the Arctic Coast of Alaska, Canada, and Greenland – linking Europe and Asia.

America operates a couple of major bases at the opposite end of the Arctic from Greenland, or near the Arctic: Elmendorf Air Force Base in Anchorage, Alaska, and Fort Wainwright Army Base in Fairbanks, Alaska. The Navy is considering reopening its Cold War era base on Adak Island in the Aleutian Islands between the Bering Sea and the Pacific. (Incidentally, I was deployed to Adak for six months from November 1989 to May 1990).

The Arctic is also home to vast energy reserves, and Russia has been investing heavily in the Arctic by developing oil and gas fields, expanding ports and its fleet of icebreakers, and building various military bases. China, too, is interested in the Arctic Ocean's trade routes and its oil and gas reserves. In fact, China declared itself a "Near Arctic State" with economic and military interests there. It is building icebreakers and seeking to extend its naval reach into the Arctic Ocean.

This is the main reason the Trump Administration is seeking to annex Greenland. With Alaska on one end and Greenland on the other, America would dominate the Northwest Passage and have a commanding position in the Arctic Ocean to better deter Russia and China and defend North America.

So, if America is adamant about acquiring Greenland, it can ask Denmark for some kind of transaction – a purchase of some kind. Has America done this? Yes, and multiple times, through the decades – and each attempt has been rejected by Denmark, as is their right. Does that mean that forcible annexation is the obvious next step, especially since America is a global superpower behemoth and Denmark is, well, Denmark?

Sure, I guess … if it was 1826. And if Denmark was a longstanding autocratic murderous enemy of the United States. But it isn't, on both accounts.

In fact, the United States and Denmark are longstanding allies. Both are thriving economically, and both are stable democracies. Well, Denmark is, anyway. And both are members of NATO.

Given its place in the GIUK Gap, NATO and Denmark have long recognized Greenland's strategic role in confronting the Soviets and Russians. And America has been afforded a free hand in Greenland. It can already build bases in Greenland and extract resources pretty much as it sees fit. Yes, it must inform and negotiate with Denmark, but as far as I can tell, Denmark has never refused or obstructed American requests. Heck, outside of Pituffik, I don't even know of any American "requests".

So why the threats to invade and annex Greenland even though the US already has a free hand to do what it wants there?

I try to keep the person of the US President – or any country's leader, for that matter – out of geopolitical analyses. It is the wider forces of history that present leaders with particular sets of choices, after all. In this case, however, I think it is Trump.I think it is ego driven. I can imagine the Administration even changing the name of Greenland after annexing it and calling it 'Trumpland' to appease and please the mercurial American President. Or, alternatively, Team Trump has a deep disdain for the world order the US built after WW2 and clings to a fringe ideology that sees the current order as an obstacle to reaching some sort of zenith American Empire.

Next up: What happens if the US invades and annexes Greenland?

Mark James is the Kirkus-starred author of geopolitical thrillers Friendship Games and The Compass Room. He has taught political and economic geography for over twenty years.